Obama polls rocket, but 'Bradley effect' worries linger

WASHINGTON (NNPA) - U. S. Sen. Barack Obama has moved yet another step closer to becoming America's first Black president after an arguably bland second debate Oct. 6 that gave him strong leads over Sen. John McCain in several key polls.But, some political observers say the polls may not reflect a racial undercurrent among Whites that could hurt Obama's election chances on Nov. 4.

A National CNN poll at the conclusion of the debate - which focused largely on the economy - had 54 per cent of voters saying Obama won the debate, versus McCain at 30 per cent. Likewise, a CBS poll favored Obama at 39 percent to 27 percent among uncommitted voters with 35 percent claiming the debate as a draw.

Moreover, Gallup, among the most credible polling agencies in the world, reports Obama actually leading McCain by more than 10 percentage points in a national poll asking voters who they favor.

"Barack Obama has opened up a nine-point lead over John McCain, 51% to 42%, in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking," states an explanation on Gallup.com. "That matches Obama's largest lead of the campaign to date."

University of Maryland Political Scientist Dr. Ron Walters called the polls astounding, but said Blacks should shave off at least five points to account for the racial factor that can go undetected until after people vote.

"I'm saying to myself, 'Wait a minute, this is okay, but I don't think it's that high,'" Walters said. "You have to respect the polling. But, you have to discount it a little."

For example, Walters said although Gallup reports a more than 10 percent Obama lead, that should be thought of as more like five percent to account for racial and other prejudices that may factor in the voting booth.

The so-called "Bradley effect," recalls the 1982 gubernatorial race between an African-American Democrat, Tom Bradley, and a White Republican, George Deukmejian. Though major polls placed Bradley well ahead of Deukmejian only days and hours before the election, Bradley narrowly lost. This discrepancy between how Whites say they will vote and how they actually vote was also observed in the 1989 Virginia governor's campaign between African-American candidate L. Douglas Wilder and White candidate Marshal Coleman. Wilder won, but by less than a percentage point - only a few days after polls gave him as much as an eight point lead.

Walters said because the Bradley race was more than 25 years ago and the Wilder race nearly 20 years ago, racial attitudes have changed. Newer and younger voters must now be factored in and it's no longer unique for an African American to be running for public office.

Still, the Obama camp appears to not take polls for granted, working vigorously in so-called battleground - or unpredictable - states to now excite registered voters to go to the polls Nov. 4. The outreach appears to be working. In states considered especially hard for Democrats, such as Virginia, Obama is ahead 49.9 to 45.1. In Florida, he us up 48.3 to 45.3 and in Pennsylvania, he is up a whopping 51.2 to 39.2, according to RealClearpolitics.com.

The key is economic worries, political observers say. "There are no issues. There's just the one issue. It's the economy," said David Bositis, senior researcher for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. "I'm not worried about the 'Bradley effect.'"

Even if attempts to deface Obama or undermine his reputation with veiled racial attacks in final days of the campaign become prevalent, Bositis predicts it won't matter.

"If your house is on fire and Frankenstein is outside, you don't worry about Frankenstein. You worry about you're going to die in the fire if you don't do something about it," Bositis said. "This election is about the way people feel about how things are going in the country right now. And the way they feel about how things are going in the country is that they stink. They stink bad.