Obama's fighting chance at winning the presidency

Barack Obama defeated Hillary and Bill Clinton by outsmarting them in the Democratic primary. While Hillary set her eyes on large states, the scrappy Illinois senator did the math and figured he could defeat her with guerilla attacks in selected congressional districts in the big states while thumping her in the largely ignored caucus states. The strategy paid off as Obama narrowly defeated the Clinton machine.Obama is set to pull off an even larger upset by defying political wisdom, which hasn't been wise in recent months. The naysayers - the ones predicting a Clinton victory over Obama - say the numbers aren't there.

The Chicago Tribune ran the numbers recently and came to a startling conclusion: if Obama can inspire a 10 percent increase in Black and young Democratic voters, that margin might be enough to propel him to wins in nine key states that Democrats lost in 2004 and could win in 2008, thus paving the way for an Obama victory.

A June 25 story in the Tribune noted, "If Obama could inspire just 10 percent more Democratic voters under 30 to go to the polls than did four years ago, that alone could switch Iowa and New Mexico from red to blue, the analysis suggests.

"Just a 10 percent increase in turnout among Blacks would make up more than 40 percent of George W. Bush's 2004 victory margin in Ohio and more than 20 percent of the Republicans' 2004 victory margin in Florida."

According to a recent CBS/New York Times poll, voters in the 18 to 39 age group favored Obama over McCain by a margin of 66 percent to 27 percent. Approximately 90 percent of Blacks have been voting for Obama.

With African Americans and young people making up the strongest part of Obama's base, a victory in November is within reach. That's certainly the case if history is any indication.

When Jesse Jackson ran for president in 1984, Black registration and turnout increased by 11 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exit polls from some states show that Black turnout doubled this year amid Obamania.

The New York Times said the South, a strong Republican stronghold since the 1960s, may be in play for the first time in decades because of Obama's strong primary showing in that region.

"Mr. Obama's Southern strategy relies on significantly increasing Black registration and turnout, as he did in the primary season," the paper observed. "[Steve Hildebrand, an Obama adviser] said that by some estimates there are 600,000 unregistered Black voters in Georgia alone. The higher the Black share of the vote, the lower the requirement for garnering White votes. But the Obama camp argues that it can increase its share of the White vote as well by focusing on younger, more progressive Whites."

Also working in Obama's favor is public opinion. A CBS/New York Times poll in April showed that 81 percent of those interviewed say the country is on the wrong track, while only 14 percent believe it is headed in the right direction. And many fault President Bush, whose ratings are at their nadir.

McCain has been particularly weak on civil rights and women's issues. During nine grading periods, the NAACP Report Card has given him grades equivalent to an F. McCain's strongest issue - some say his only issue - is his record as a former Vietnam prisoner of war. But he is no longer being given a pass on that issue.

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who is now supporting Obama, told reporters: "Everybody admires John McCain's service as a fighter pilot, his courage as a prisoner of war. But having served as a fighter pilot - and I know my experience as a company commander in Vietnam - that doesn't prepare you to be commander in chief in terms of dealing with the national strategic issues that are involved. It may give you a feeling for what the troops are going through in the process, but it doesn't give you the experience first hand of the national strategic issues.''

On CBS' "Face the Nation," Clark noted that Obama also lacked that experience, but added: "Well, I don't think riding in a fighter plane and getting shot down is a qualification to be president.''

George E. Curry, former editor-in-chief of Emerge magazine and the NNPA News Service, is a keynote speaker, moderator, and media coach. He can be reached through his Web site, www.georgecurry.com.